A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that divided the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an highly split population where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in academia but scarcely any politicians or campaigners want to engage with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators supports unity or the status quo. Each composes two articles that seek objectivity in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and social statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass identity markers, levies, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the idea that there may exist valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they favour unification but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a feckless government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but all factions has has valuable insights to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
